【Evening Session】Bullish Frenzy Gold Hits a New High Again

Gold：

On Monday (September 29), Trump held an emergency meeting with congressional leaders. If no agreement is reached by Tuesday, the probability of a government shutdown on Wednesday will far exceed 60%. This may lead to delays in the non-farm payrolls data, potentially creating a data vacuum, prompting funds to pour into gold for safe-haven.  

In terms of U.S. data, the PCE price index released last Friday met market expectations, which strengthened the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in October. The start of the rate-cutting cycle remains the core driver of gold's continuous rise.  

Geopolitically, Russia's Ministry of Defense announced control of a region in Donetsk Oblast, and the Russia-Ukraine battlefield remains in a stalemate. In the Middle East, U.S. President Trump proposed a Gaza peace plan, which is very close to reaching an agreement to end the Gaza conflict.  

Mai Dong, Investment Strategist of Zhisheng Research, specially invited by Plotio, believes that the rate-cutting cycle supports the continuous rise of gold prices. Coupled with the possible shutdown of the U.S. government, which leads to rising risk aversion, gold continues to refresh historical highs.  

Technical Analysis: The daily chart closed with a positive candle yesterday, and gold prices remain strong. At the 1-hour level, prices are in an upward trend and keep running above the 60/120-day moving averages. Today, pay attention to the support at $3,830 below and the resistance at $3,880 above.  

Crude Oil ：

On Sunday (September 28), the OPEC+ meeting confirmed an increase in production by at least 137,000 barrels per day in November, and the current output is nearly 500,000 barrels per day below the target. Against the background of supply exceeding demand, although OPEC+'s production increase is less than market expectations, there is still a risk of oversupply.  

The IEA (International Energy Agency) warned that global crude oil supply may be oversupplied and reach a historical high by 2026. As OPEC+ continues to expand production, the market focus will shift from price management to the competition for market share.  

At the same time, the export of the northern Iraqi pipeline resumed after a two-year suspension, changing the regional supply pattern. The future supply will be further eased, making the short-term bullish and long-term bearish pattern of the oil market more prominent.  

Geopolitically, Trump proposed a 20-point Gaza peace plan. Although the market generally believes that the plan is difficult to gain the support of Hamas, it is regarded as one of the reasons for the decline in oil prices.  

Technical Analysis: The daily chart closed with a negative candle yesterday. At the daily level, prices are still consolidating in the range of $61.50 to $66.50. At the 1-hour level, the market is in a downward trend. Today, focus on the support at $61.80 below and the resistance at $63.80 above.  

U.S. Dollar Index： 

In the United States, Federal Reserve's Williams stated that signs of weakness in the labor market led him to support an interest rate cut at the last meeting, and the policy will still be data-driven. Federal Reserve's Musalem said that he is open to future interest rate cuts but believes that caution is needed.  

In Europe, the current weak economic growth may force the European Central Bank to change its policy stance. ECB President Lagarde once said that as interest rates have remained at the level of 2% in the past few months and inflation has stabilized near the central bank's target, the bank's policy is in a good state.  

Technical Analysis: The daily chart closed with a negative candle yesterday. At the daily level, prices are still running below 98.80. At the 1-hour level, the market is in a downward trend. Intraday, pay attention to the support at 97.30 below and the resistance at 98.10 above.  

Nasdaq：

The Nasdaq closed with a positive candle on the daily chart. At the daily level, prices were obviously suppressed at the previous high of 24,750, showing a slight pullback. At the 1-hour level, the market is still in an upward trend, but prices and fell back, which may lead to range consolidation. Focus on the range of 24,200 - 24,750. Whether the U.S. government can shut down also affects the nerves of U.S. stocks, and investors need to pay attention. Today, focus on the resistance at 24,750 above and the support at 24,450 below.  

Copper：

The daily chart of copper closed with a positive candle. At the daily level, the market is in an upward trend. At the 1-hour level, prices were temporarily suppressed near the $4.90 integer mark, showing a slight pullback. The market is in an upward trend, and prices are running above the 60/120-day moving averages. Today, pay attention to the support at $4.78 below and the resistance at $4.90 above.  

September 30 Market Roundup  

1. U.S. federal funds will be exhausted on Wednesday (October 1) this week, and the government is facing the risk of a shutdown.  
2. Trump posted a cartoon picture on social media, threatening to "fire" Powell.  
3. Gold hit a new historical high again, and the value of U.S. gold reserves exceeded $1 trillion.  
4. The EU restarted sanctions against Iran, which will affect Iran's crude oil transportation.  

September 30 Key Data/Events Preview  

1. 20:50: ECB President Lagarde delivers a speech.  
2. 21:00: U.S. July FHFA House Price Index (month-on-month).  
3. 21:00: Federal Reserve's Collins delivers a speech.  
4. 21:45: U.S. September Chicago PMI.  
5. 22:00: U.S. August JOLTs Job Openings.  

【Important Statement】 The above content and views are provided by the third-party partner platform, Zhisheng, for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors operate at their own risk based on this information.  

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