【Evening Session】Fierce Partisan Struggle Pushes Gold Prices to Another New High

Gold :

After the U.S. government shutdown, the deadlock between the two parties persists. On Monday (6 October), Trump stated that he was willing to negotiate with the Democratic Party on healthcare subsidies to end the funding standoff. Shortly afterward, he reaffirmed that the prerequisite for negotiations was that the Democrats allow the government to reopen.

On Tuesday, Trump indicated that he would take advantage of the current shutdown to lay off thousands of federal employees. Meanwhile, regarding the salaries of employees during the shutdown, Trump said that backpaying salaries was a topic worth discussing, but "some people do not deserve to be taken care of." This further hardened the stance on the government shutdown.

At the same time, the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has drafted a memorandum stating that there is no legal guarantee that employees will receive compensation after the government shutdown ends. Democratic lawmakers quickly refuted this position, and the White House’s threat promptly triggered a more intense debate.

Mai Dong, Investment Strategist of Zhisheng Research specially invited by Plotio, believes that after the U.S. government shutdown, Trump’s actions—adding fuel to the fire—make it unlikely that the shutdown issue will be resolved in the short term, and risk-aversion sentiment will continue to rise.

Technical Analysis: The daily candlestick closed positive yesterday. At the 1-hour level, the market is in an upward trend and maintains a strong upward momentum. Today, focus on the support level of $4,000 below and the resistance level of $4,060 above.

Crude Oil :

In the early hours of today, the American Petroleum Institute (API) released crude oil inventory data for the week ending October 3rd. The previous value showed a decrease of 3.674 million barrels per day, the expected value was an increase of 2.25 million barrels per day, and the actual announced value was an increase of 2.78 million barrels per day.

On the supply side, OPEC+ announced that it will further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, consistent with the production increase in October. This is far lower than the previously market-expected 500,000 barrels per day. Due to the relatively small production increase, oil prices have received strong support at the $60 level.

Recently, the core contradictions in the crude oil market are not prominent, and oil prices will remain in a volatile range. The supply-side production increase is lower than market expectations, while on the demand side, crude oil inventories are rising and crude oil consumption is in a sluggish phase, maintaining a pattern of "weak supply and weak demand."

Technical Analysis: The daily candlestick closed negative yesterday. At the daily level, prices have returned to the range of $61.50 to $66.50. At the 1-hour level, the market has formed an upward trend. Today, focus on the support level of $61.90 below and the resistance level of $63.50 above.

U.S. Dollar:

Regarding U.S. data, affected by the government shutdown, there have been relatively few important data releases from the U.S. recently. Currently, the market holds a pessimistic attitude toward the government’s reopening. Referring to Trump’s first term, when the government was shut down for approximately one month, the market expects the government may not reopen until the end of October.

On the European front, a new round of political unrest in France is roiling European financial markets, and investors concerns about the country’s fiscal stability have surged sharply. On 7th October , France’s government bond market suffered another severe sell-off, with the yield on France’s 10-year government bonds once breaking above 3.6%, approaching the high level seen during the 2011 European debt crisis.

Technical Analysis: The daily candlestick closed positive yesterday. At the daily level, the market has stabilized above the 98 mark. At the 1-hour level, the market maintains a strong upward trend. During the day, focus on the support level of 98.60 below and the resistance level of 99.10 above.

Nasdaq:

The Nasdaq daily candlestick closed negative. At the daily level, the market came under significant pressure at the 25,000 mark yesterday and experienced a sharp pullback. At the 1-hour level, prices are on the verge of breaking below the upward trend line and are currently consolidating near the 120-day moving average, indicating a possible trend reversal in the market. Today, focus on the support level of 24,700 below and the resistance level of 24,950 above.

Copper:

Copper daily candlestick closed positive. At the daily level, the market has stabilized above $5 and maintains an upward trend. At the 1-hour level, prices are trading above the 60-day/120-day moving averages. Today, focus on the support level of $4.96 below and the resistance level of $5.09 above.

8 October Market Snapshot:

1. Gold has broken through $4,030 perounce, setting new all-time highs consecutively.
2. French Defense Minister Le Maire announced his resignation from the government and submitted his resignation to Macron, who has accepted it.
3. Canada stated that U.S.-Canada trade negotiations have achieved success, with the agreement focusing on steel, aluminum, and energy.

8 October Key Data/Events Preview:

1. 21:30 (GMT+8): Federal Reserve Governor Barr delivers a speech.
2. 22:30 (GMT+8): U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending October 3rd.
3. 02:00 (GMT+8, next day): Federal Reserve releases monetary policy meeting minutes.
4. 03:15 (GMT+8, next day): Federal Reserve’s Kashkari delivers a speech.

Important Statement：

The above content and views are provided by the third-party partner platform, Zhisheng, for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors operate at their own risk based on this information.  

This article is from Plotio; please cite the source when reprinting.

【In the event of any inconsistency between the English and Chinese versions, the Chinese version will prevail.】