【Morning session】Israel-Palestine Ceasefire Reached Gold Declines in Short Term

Gold:

In the early hours of today, the Israeli government agreed to a ceasefire deal in Gaza, which includes the release of detained personnel and the entry of humanitarian aid supplies into the Gaza Strip. Risk aversion has eased somewhat, leading to a short-term decline in gold prices.

The U.S. government shutdown has entered its ninth day, with no progress made so far, and key economic data may not be released on time. According to officials from the U.S. Department of Labor, the department has recalled employees to prepare the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September, which is expected to be released before the end of the month.

Owen, a Senior Gold Analyst at Zhisheng Research(exclusively invited by Plotio) , stated that the core factors supporting gold's rise still exist. The short-term disturbance caused by the easing of geopolitical tensions will not change the overall upward trend of gold.

Technical Analysis:The monthly and weekly charts of gold show a bullish trend.

On the 4-hour chart, gold fell below the 13-day moving average yesterday (9 October ) but rebounded after finding support at the 55-day moving average, indicating that the overall bullish trend remains intact.

On the hourly chart, attention should be paid to the resistance level of 4002 U.S. dollars. If this level is broken, gold is expected to return to the previous high around 4058 U.S. dollars. On the downside, the support level to watch is 3930 U.S. dollars.

Gold hourly chart

Crude Oil:

From the supply perspective, OPEC+ has accelerated production increases since April, reversing the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut implemented since November 2023. Non-OPEC+ countries have also increased production simultaneously. As of the week ending October 3rd, U.S. crude oil production rose by 124,000 barrels per day to 13.629 million barrels per day, the highest level since December 6th of last year.

Additionally, due to frequent drone attacks by Ukraine on Russian refineries, Russia has been forced to shift more towards crude oil exports. Data shows that Russia's crude oil exports are close to a 16-month high. Goldman Sachs predicts that there will be a global supply surplus of approximately 2 million barrels per day from this quarter to next year.

Technical Analysis:Since June 19th, crude oil has been fluctuating downward from 77.60 U.S. dollars on the daily chart, with both high and low points moving lower, indicating a high probability of further decline in the future.

Yesterday, crude oil failed to break through the resistance level of 62.8 U.S. dollars, so the probability of a downward movement during the day is high. If it falls below the support level of 61.20 U.S. dollars, it will test the previous low support at 60.40 U.S. dollars.

Crude oil hourly chart

Copper:

Copper prices broke through 4.65 U.S. dollars at the end of September and have maintained a fluctuating upward trend over the following two weeks. The upward structure remains intact, and further upside is expected. In the short term, the support level to watch on the downside is 5.01 U.S. dollars, while the resistance level on the upside is 5.20 U.S. dollars.

Nikkei 225 :

The Nikkei 225 opened with a gap higher on Monday (6 October) and has fluctuated upward in recent days, with bulls taking the lead. From the hourly chart, both high and low points are constantly moving upward, so the strategy of buying on dips is recommended. During the day, the support level to watch on the downside is 48,100.

[Important Disclaimer:The above content and views are provided by Zhisheng, a third-party cooperative platform, for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors who trade based on this information shall bear their own risks.]
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